Gemma Jones
Research Details
Thesis Name
From Risk Prediction to Threat Assessment in Domestic Violence: Identifying Intent, Capability, Escalation Pathways, and Intervention TargetsThesis Abstract
Domestic violence remains a major social, public health, and criminal justice problem in Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics [ABS], 2023; Boxall et al., 2022; Australian Institute of Health and Welfare [AIHW], 2024). National survey data indicate that a substantial proportion of the population has experienced violence from an intimate partner, with risk often increasing during periods of relationship breakdown and separation (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2023). Research has also shown that serious domestic violence, including intimate partner homicide, frequently emerges through patterns of behavioural escalation involving coercive control, jealousy, grievance, stalking, and relationship conflict (Boxall et al., 2022; Cubitt et al., 2024). Despite growing recognition of these escalation processes, most domestic violence assessment approaches remain focused on predicting the statistical likelihood of future violence using structured risk assessment tools (Messing & Thaller, 2013; Storey et al., 2014; Ryland et al., 2025).
Although these tools contribute to structured decision-making, their predictive accuracy is typically moderate and they are limited in their ability to identify rare outcomes such as severe violence or homicide (Messing & Thaller, 2013; Ryland et al., 2025). Threat assessment frameworks offer an alternative approach by focusing on behavioural pathways toward violence and examining whether an individual is developing violent intent, possesses the capability to act, and is progressing toward violent behaviour (Hart & Logan, 2011; Meloy et al., 2012). However, such approaches have not been systematically applied to domestic violence contexts (Hart & Logan, 2011; Meloy et al., 2012; Storey et al., 2014).
This research aims to develop and pilot a domestic violence threat assessment framework that integrates escalation indicators, motivational drivers, capability factors, protective influences, and intervention targets. The project will be conducted as a series of four interrelated studies: (1) a systematic review of escalation pathways in domestic violence, (2) a conceptual analysis of existing risk and threat assessment tools, (3) qualitative investigation of escalation processes and intervention opportunities in domestic violence cases, and (4) development and preliminary testing of a domestic violence threat assessment framework. The research aims to advance understanding of domestic violence escalation and contribute to improved assessment and prevention by supporting earlier identification of escalating behaviour and more targeted intervention strategies.
Why My Research is Important/Impacts
Despite the widespread use of risk assessment tools in domestic violence response systems, existing approaches remain largely focused on predicting the statistical likelihood of future violence rather than understanding how individuals progress toward violent behaviour and how that progression may be disrupted (Messing & Thaller, 2013; Ryland et al., 2025; Storey et al., 2014). Structured risk assessment tools have improved consistency in decision-making across policing, courts, and domestic violence services, but their predictive accuracy is typically moderate and their capacity to identify rare outcomes such as severe violence or homicide is limited (Messing & Thaller, 2013; Ryland et al., 2025; Spivak et al., 2024).
A further limitation is that many widely used assessment tools were developed and validated primarily in North American samples, raising questions about their applicability to Australian populations and service systems (Hilton et al., 2004; Kropp & Hart, 2015). In addition, many instruments attempt to predict a broad range of outcomes including physical assault, stalking, coercive control, and homicide despite these behaviours involving distinct behavioural pathways and contextual dynamics (Messing & Thaller, 2015; Storey et al., 2014).
Threat assessment frameworks offer an alternative approach by focusing on behavioural pathways toward violence and examining whether an individual is developing violent intent, possesses the capability to act, and is progressing toward violent behaviour (Hart & Logan, 2011; Meloy et al., 2012). These approaches emphasise monitoring dynamic warning behaviours, situational stressors, and escalation processes that may signal increasing threat during particular periods. However, existing threat assessment models have largely been developed in contexts such as targeted violence, stalking, or grievance-fuelled violence and have not been systematically adapted to domestic violence contexts (Meloy et al., 2012; Storey et al., 2014).
Consequently, there is currently no integrated domestic violence threat assessment framework that systematically incorporates behavioural escalation processes, motivational drivers, capability factors, protective influences, and intervention targets (Boxall et al., 2022; Cubitt et al., 2024; Ryland et al., 2025; Storey et al., 2014). Addressing this gap may improve practitioners’ ability to identify escalating domestic violence and intervene before violence progresses to serious harm.
