New CQUniversity research reveals hidden trends in Queensland's water market
New CQUniversity research has uncovered previously unseen trends in Queensland's irrigation water market, giving farmers, policymakers and industry new insights into how the value of permanent water entitlements has changed across the state over the past decade.
Published in the international journal Agricultural Water Management, the study analysed more than a decade of permanent water entitlement prices across 16 irrigation schemes throughout Queensland, revealing significant changes that had been hidden using traditional methods of analysis.
Lead researcher Dr Jaba Sarker, a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in CQUniversity's School of Business and Law, said the findings provide a clearer understanding of one of agriculture's most valuable assets.
"Permanent water entitlements represent a major investment for many irrigation businesses, so understanding how their value changes over time is important for farmers, investors and policymakers," Dr Sarker said.
"Our research identified a significant shift in water prices after 2019 and showed that advanced statistical modelling can reveal patterns that conventional approaches simply miss."
The study found permanent water entitlement prices across many Queensland irrigation schemes remained between 115 and 164 per cent higher than 2015 levels following increases that began after 2019.
Rather than following simple statewide trends, water values varied across different regions, reflecting the influence of local agricultural production, climate conditions and market characteristics.
Personal connection
For Dr Sarker, the research has a deeply personal connection.
Growing up in a farming family in rural Bangladesh, she saw firsthand how access to reliable water shaped every aspect of farming life - from deciding which crops could be grown, to determining whether a harvest would be successful.
"Growing up in a farming family, I learned very early that water is much more than a natural resource – it underpins farming, food security and rural livelihoods," she said.
"Those experiences inspired my passion for agricultural economics and continue to motivate my research today. While my work now uses advanced statistical models and economic analysis, I never lose sight of the people behind the data.
"My goal is to generate evidence that helps farmers, policymakers and water managers make informed decisions that keep agriculture productive, resilient and sustainable into the future."
Research findings
The research was undertaken with fellow CQUniversity colleagues Professor John Rolfe and Professor Delwar Akbar and supported by the Cooperative Research Centre for Developing Northern Australia (CRCNA) under the Australian Government's Cooperative Research Program.
Professor Rolfe is a leading economist and said the water markets provided valuable insights into the strength of Queensland's agricultural sector.
"Water prices reflect the commercial returns being generated by irrigated agriculture across different regions and industries," Professor Rolfe said.
"Irrigation water supplies provide a major boost to regional economies across Queensland and help underpin continued growth in the state's agricultural sector."
Dr Sarker said the findings could help improve confidence in water markets and support more informed decision-making as competition for water resources increases.
"As climate variability increases and demand for water grows, robust evidence will become increasingly important," she said.
"We hope this research supports better policy, more transparent water markets and stronger outcomes for farming communities."
